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The 2013 Oscar Predictions!

This is it.  It all comes down to this.  The Oscars.  Until it finishes and then we start a brand new year.  But we can all discuss about that and our post-depression after the 85th Academy Awards.  But let’s get straight to it.  Here are my predictions for the 2013 Academy Awards (and who should win).

Best Picture

Winner: Argo
Who Should Win:  Lincoln/Life of Pi
Spoiler Alert: Silver Linings Playbook

I hate hate hate how the Oscars are now predictable.  Though you always want to award film thats deserve the statue, it has become such a mammoth of a game with all these award shows and guilds prior to the big one.  It’s like if the two Super Bowl teams kept playing 4-5 times before the actual big game in February.  It’s became that big of a headache and has led to some anticlimactic years.  This year, it’s not so much predictable as frustrating.  Plain and simple: Argo is not the best film of 2012.  If I had a vote, I would probably have put Lincoln or Life of Pi as my number one rank, and Argo would most likely be my 5th or 6th.  Nonetheless, I predict it’s going to win.  Look out for Silver Linings Playbook to have a big night, and if does, this is going to be the icing on the cake.

Best Director

Winner: Steven Spielberg
Who Should Win: Spielberg/Ang Lee
Spoiler Alert: David O. Russell

As you can see, I’m very split between Life of Pi and Lincoln.  But considering I don’t have a lot of courage in these predictions, I’m going to stick with Spielberg just because it makes the most sense.  If Lincoln is somehow number one or number two behind Argo, then it makes a lot of sense that Spielberg will win his third Oscar for directing.  But something tells me Lincoln is not second.  I wouldn’t be surprised if Life of Pi or Silver Linings is ahead of Lincoln, which would lead to Director going to someone else.  I’m betting money on David O. Russell, not just because Vegas has him at +1500, but because I do think he has a legitimate chance of winning.  Over Ang Lee?  Not sure, but it all depends on how the night is playing out.  If we see De Niro and Lawrence win their respective categories, then I’d be a fool not to bet on Russell.  It’s anyone’s game.

Best Actor

Winner: Daniel Day-Lewis
Who Should Win: Daniel Day-Lewis
Spoiler Alert: Hugh Jackman

If there’s anyone that could potentially upset Abraham Lincoln is Hugh Jackman, but I don’t see that happening.  If it does, then you truly know that the Academy despised Lincoln and will not win one category throughout the entire evening.  But Lewis is going to win…….

Best Actress

Winner: Emannuelle Riva
Who Should Win: Jessica Chastain
Spoiler Alert: Emannuelle Riva

Though I predict Riva will win, she’s still not the favorite as Jennifer Lawrence is, but I think those who predict Lawrence will win don’t see the changing tide and emotional pull Riva has with the Academy.  They loved Amour, so much so they’re willing to sacrifice a 22 year old’s first Oscar (she’s going to get nominated again) and reward the 80’s something French actress who most likely will be her final film of her long and enduring career.  If you look at last year’s Best Supporting Actor, Christopher Plummer, who definitely didn’t put in the best work in that category, but still won because of his age and career’s work throughout the 82 years he’s been placed on this earth.  It’s more of a congratulatory win rather than it being truly deserving, but this year, it’s both a congrats and a deserving vote.  I would’ve voted for Chastain who delivered one of the all time great female roles of all time, but I don’t think I need to go into much detail about why ZDT has gotten one of the all time screwed over campaigns in Oscar history.

Best Supporting Actor

Winner: Robert De Niro
Who Should Win: Tommy Lee Jones
Spoiler Alert: Christoph Waltz

I think the Academy loves Silver Linings Playbook a lot more than the rest of Hollywood, and when you have Harvey F****** Weinstein behind your campaign, then you’re always a threat.  The favorite to most people is still Tommy Lee Jones or Christoph Waltz, but I’m sticking with De Niro.  Waltz technically is in a poster role (dominates screen time) but still his performance is well deserving.  But he just recently won and the Academy usually doesn’t reward the same actors between small gaps.  I would love to see Tommy Lee Jones win, but I’ll stick to my upset pick.

Best Supporting Actress

Winner: Anne Hatheway, Les Miserables
Who Should Win: Sally Field, Lincoln
Spoiler Alert: Sally Field, Lincoln

If Sally Field wins this, I’m calling Lincoln for Director and Picture.  But I highly doubt it.  Anne Hatheway has swept this award since December.  It’s hers for the taking.

Best Original Screenplay

Winner: Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained
Who Should Win: Mark Boal, Zero Dark Thirty
Spoiler Alert: Michael Haneke, Amour

This award all depends on how the Academy feels about these three films.  Django, ZDT and Amour are all in a dead heat race as they’ve split the industry’s votes between the WGA, Golden Globes, BAFTA, etc.  I’m sticking with Quentin on this one, but that’s because I’m going with what my head thinks this year.  My heart tells me Haneke because the Academy is in amour with Amour (someone shoot me, thanks) but I wouldn’t be surprised if any of these three wins, including the one I think deserves to win, Mark Boal.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Winner: Chris Terrio, Argo
Who Should Win: Tony Kushner, Lincoln
Spoiler Alert: David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook

This is the category that I potentially think will give us a foreshadow of who’s going to win Best Picture.  All four possible BP winners are in this category (including Life of Pi) and whoever wins this category I believe could very well also be on stage for Picture.  The only film that I see winning Adapted Screenplay and not winning Picture is Lincoln.  Tony Kushner’s script is by far the biggest achievement, but as you’ve noticed with the prior guilds, sometimes achievement is not the most important.  If Argo wins here, we can slowly see the blocks tumbling away and it revealing who will win Best Picture.

Best Editing

Winner: Argo
Who Should Win: Zero Dark Thirty
Spoiler Alert: Silver Linings Playbook

If anything except Argo wins editing (which it should) then anticipate an upset at Picture.  The only film that wins this category but it eventually meaning nothing will be ZDT.  What a shame…

Best Cinematography

Winner: Life of Pi
Who Should Win: Skyfall
Spoiler Alert: Lincoln

I don’t necessarily think Skyfall deserves to win, but I do think Roger Deakins does deserve his first damn Oscar.  He’s been nominated for the ninth time, but still is empty handed.  He’s the best director of photography working today, and almost no one touches him in terms of the quality of work he puts on year in and year out.  But I predict Life of Pi winning, and Deakins will have to sit out another year.  What a shame…

Best Production Design

Winner: Les Miserables
Who Should Win: Lincoln
Spoiler Alert: Anna Karenina

Okay, honestly, Anna Karenina is most likely going to win, but I just don’t want to feel stupid that if it does win, I at least have written it somewhere.  Well, I predict Les Mis is going to win a few categories and this is where it’ll win at least one Oscar.  It’s not the favorite, but I think the Academy just votes which film they enjoyed the most in certain categories.  Lincoln deserves to win, but it will be ignored.  Of course.

Best Sound Mixing

Winner: Les Miserables
Who Should Win: Skyfall
Spoiler Alert: Skyfall

All depends which film they enjoy more, Skyfall or Les Mis.  I’m going to stick with history here and say Les Miserables because musicals usually take this category.

Best Sound Editing

Winner: Life of Pi
Who Should Win: Zero Dark Thirty
Spoiler Alert: Life of Pi

I put Life of Pi as both winner and spoiler alert because I’m picking the upset here.  Skyfall and Argo are technically ahead of Life of Pi in terms of who’s in the lead, but Life of Pi sweeping the MPSE was enough for me to choose it.  Zero Dark Thirty deserves to win this award though, hands down.

Best Costume Design

Winner: Anna Karenina
Who Should Win: Lincoln
Spoiler Alert: Les Miserables

Anna Karenina will win the Oscar here.  If Lincoln does, potential big night for Lincoln.

Best Original Score

Winner: Life of Pi
Who Should Win: Life of Pi
Spoiler Alert: Lincoln

John Williams will lose, but if he somehow doesn’t, then like Costume, could lead to bigger things.  Life of Pi though deserves to win this category.  Great great soundtrack.

Best Original Song

Winner: Skyfall
Who Should Win: Skyfall
Spoiler Alert: Anything other than Skyfall

If Adele performs and attends, you better give it to Skyfall.

Best Foreign Language Film

Winner: Amour
Who Should Win: Amour
Spoiler Alert: Kon-Tiki

Amour will win its first Oscar here (unless Screenplay is before Foreign Language film).

Best Documentary Feature

Winner: Searching for Sugarman
Who Should Win: The Invisible War
Spoiler Alert: How To Survive A Plague/The Invisible War

Searching for Sugarman has swept, but the Academy has a track record of not voting with the trends for documentary.  Only if this were true for everything else.

Best Animated Feature

Winner: Brave
Who Should Win: Wreck-It-Ralph
Spoiler Alert: Frankenweenie

I hope hope hope Brave doesn’t win, but I think it will.  the most deserving film here is Wreck-It-Ralph, and most experts are picking it to win.  But Pixar is the new monster, and it usually wins this category.  Also add in the fact it’s won many of the precursors, and I think you have your eventual winner.  Don’t be surprised if Tim Burton somehow goes up on stage and creeps everyone out.  And then Helena Bonham Carter will come up with him for some reason.

Best Visual Effects

Winner: Life of Pi
Who Should Win: Life of Pi
Spoiler Alert: Anything Else

Richard Parker is the greatest achievement this year.

Best Makeup and Hair

Winner: Les Miserables
Who Should Win: The Hobbit
Spoiler Alert: Les Miserables

Technically, The Hobbit is the favorite, but what I think most people are forgetting is the new addition to the category, Hair.  I don’t think Academy members know squat about makeup and hair, and I really don’t think they liked the Hobbit and its HFR nonsense, so in response, they’ll make sure it loses the one category it most likely should and would win.  Les Miserables, take your Oscar.

Best Live Action Short

Winner: Curefew
Spoiler Alert: Henry

Best Animated Short

Winner: Paperman
Spoiler Alert: Adam & Dog

Best Documentary Short

Winner: Open Heart
Spoiler Alert: Inocente

Well, there they are folks.  I do expect my predictions to get demolished tonight, but hey, who cares?!  But good luck and enjoy your Oscars night.  And in tribute for the films of 2012, here is a great video.

The 2013 Oscar Preview: Acting Categories

Acting!  Now, for our four acting categories.

Best Supporting Actress

Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
Sally Field, Lincoln
Helen Hunt, The Sessions
Amy Adams, The Master
Jacki Weaver, Silver Linings Playbook

There really is no discussion here.  Anne Hathaway is going to win Best Supporting Actress.  She steals the film and she will still this win, as almost no other actress will come close.  Performance wise though, I Sally Field in Lincoln matches Hathaway’s vibrato and intensity.  Her crucial part as Mary Todd Lincoln is crucial for the film, and her astonishing work would’ve been recognized in almost any other year.  I will say this.  If for some reason Hathaway doesn’t win and either Weaver or Field shock the world in a huge upset, their win would be a foreshadow for both Director and Picture.  But I’d bet my left arm on Anne Hathaway.  In other news…Russell Crowe is performing at the Oscars.  Shoot.  Me.  Now.

Best Supporting Actor

Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, The Master
Alan Arkin, Argo
Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook

This is most likely the closest race out of any category this year at the Academy Awards.  There is no lead, no favorite and more advantage.  Technically, Waltz should be the favorite considering he has received the most guild awards including the BAFTA and Golden Globe, but he just recently won for Inglourious Basterds which usually is an automatic no win.  But his role in Django is so fascinating that many seem to think that just can’t ignore his performance.  But I’m still sticking with the assumption that most voters will realize that they can’t give him two Oscars in the same category with less than 2-3 years apart.  That moves on to Tommy Lee Jones in Lincoln.  His win at the SAG and Critic’s Choice is very important, considering the acting branch in the Academy has the most amount of members.  But winning the SAG does not always equate to winning the Oscar.  My guess is that if Tommy Lee Jones win Supporting Actor, then you can safely assume that Spielberg will win Directing, but then again, I’m betting on myself to look like a complete fool come Oscar night.  That’s why my pick will most likely be Robert De Niro in Silver Linings Playbook.  I think people love Silver Linings, but I also think people love De Niro even more.  Though he’s already received two Oscars before, it’s been 21 years since his last NOMINATION.  And considering how my picks are going, I think the Academy will feel it necessary to reward Silver Linings for its achievement in some category.  Though most people will bet on either Waltz or Jones (which is the smartest and safest thing to do), I wouldn’t be too shocked if De Niro’s name is inside that envelope.  And you can make sure I’ll be bragging all night on this blog.

Best Actress

Emannuelle Riva, Amour
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Quvenzhane Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild
Naomi Watts, The Impossible

This is also another category that’s almost impossible to predict.  The race for Best Actress has changed constantly over that last few months, with a new leader taking the top spot every week or so.  After Zero Dark Thirty was released, it was almost certain that Jessica Chastain would receive her first Oscar, establishing the start of a marvelous career we are about to witness.  But when that shit storm hit of ZDT’s pro-torture nonsense, it took down any chance for ZDT to dominate, let alone win one Oscar on Sunday.  I do hope ZDT wins at least one, but I don’t think it’ll be in this category, which is a shame.  Chastain turns in an amazing performance, as does Wallis and Watts.  Both are amazing works of art, and their respective film truly rests on their shoulders, supplying the emotional and psychological toll of their situations.  But the favorite here is Lawrence mainly because Silver Linings Playbook is a film that the Academy eats up, a la Argo.  Her performance is great, and just like Chastain, will have an amazing career with future nominations and win(s).  And because of this huge potential and promise from both Chastain and Lawrence, I believe they will cancel each other out and make room for 82-year old Emannuelle Riva, the oldest actress to ever be nominated.  Amour is adored, and she pulls in one of the most harrowing performances of the year.  Amour will win at least 1-2 Oscars, and Best Actress is a strong possibility.

Best Actor

Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables
Denzel Washington, Flight
Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
Joaquin Phoenix, The Master

Again, another category filled with great performances.  This is definitely a strong year for Best Actor, and anyone of these actors not named Daniel Day-Lewis had a legitimate chance of winning if not for, well, Daniel Day-Lewis.  There really is no need for discussion here because just like Anne Hathaway, Lewis is running away with this award ever since people first flocked to see Lincoln.  If there’s any chance of an upset, which then I will throw my remote at my television set and then cry, is Hugh Jackman.  The Academy is raving over his performance, and just like Lewis, rests on his abilities to carry the film.  I don’t see it happening, but if there was any possible chance that another name could be called, it’d be him.  Even smaller chance for Bradley Cooper, but there’s no reason for anyone to think this is going to anyone else except Daniel Day-Lewis.

Tomorrow we will dive into the Directing category.

The 2013 Oscar Preview: Screenplay, Animation, Documentary & Foreign Film

We’re slowly heading into the bigger categories, though I personally love the cinematography, editing and other categories mainly because I love seeing movies root for their movies.  Teammates winning is always more rewarding than being rewarded yourself.  But moving forward…

Best Foreign Film

Amour (Austria)
No
(Chile)
A Royal Affair (Denmark)Kon-Tiki (Norway)
War Witch (Netherlands)

This year’s foreign film nominees are heavily dominated by the Europeans, and deservedly so.  There are a lot of good films, and usually the best films are always regarded within the foreign branch.  But nothing stands in the way of the Amour train.  After the nominations were announced, the Academy proclaimed their love for Amour, rewarding it with five big nominations including Picture, Director, Actress, Screenplay and of course, foreign film.  Out of those five nominations, this one is in the bag.  There’s a slight possibility that Kon-Tiki could win, going after a Pan’s Labyrinth and The Lives of Others type year.  But I highly doubt it.  If you could put all your chips for one category, it’s this one.

Best Documentary Feature

Searching For Sugar Man
The Gatekeepers
How To Survive A Plague
The Invisible War
5 Broken Cameras

Documentaries this year were exceptional, as this list doesn’t even come close to the amount of films that were released in high quality and entertainment.  Leaving off The Central Park Five, The Queen of Versailles, West of Memphis and The Bully Project is a big problem.  But the rest of these documentaries are just as worthy of a nomination, so there’s not as much of a complaint.  The early favorite in this category is Searching for Sugar Man, as it has won much of the precursors.  But there is a slight chance for three other documentaries including The Gatekeepers, How To Survive a Plague and The Invisible War.  The most powerful of the three potential surprise winners is The Invisible War, which has a strong emotional, political and social message.  The other two are great films, focusing on an amazing story and journey that fulfill the purpose of documentaries.  I would easily consider these films as favorites, but Sugar Man has won constantly for the last two months.  Though Academy winners do have to watch these documentaries to vote, I still am sticking with Searching For Sugar Man to win this year.

Best Animation Feature

Brave
Wreck-It-Ralph
Frankenweenie
Paranorman
The Pirates!  Band of Misfits

Usually Best Animation Feature is an easy pick.  Considering Pixar has won the six out of the last 12, you would usually consider the Pixar film a lock.  And no doubt it has become the favorite out of the five, though I think it’s the weakest amongst the nominated films.  My personal distaste for Brave is somewhat clouding my judgment here, mainly because I don’t think it deserves to win.  But regardless of how I feel, it has been winning the last few weeks.  From the Golden Globes, BAFTA, PGA and DGA, it has almost swept the Animation awards, except for the Annies.  Right now it’s a two headed race between Wreck-It-Ralph (where it dominated at the Annies) and Brave.  But look out for Frankenweenie as the Academy loves Tim Burton and his animation.  If I had to make my pick right now, I would go with Brave, though it pains me to do so.  I prefer Wreck-It-Ralph to win, and I would love to see it beat Brave, but Brave is the hot pick right now, and I most likely think Pixar will pick up another Oscar.

Best Original Screenplay

Mark Boal, Zero Dark Thirty
Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained
Michael Haneke, Amour
Wes Anderson & Roman Coppola, Moonrise Kingdom
John Gatins, Flight

This has been one of the hardest years to predict screenplays.  Can’t recall when both screenplay categories were this difficult.  You can make the argument that four of the five nominees have a shot at winning this thing.  The only one that doesn’t is John Gatins, who shouldn’t complain considering this is his first ever script and just to be part of a group that includes Tarantino and Anderson is an honor.  The unfortunate thing about this race is that there is no favorite.  It literally is a three-headed heat going down to the wire.  If we were going off of precursors, than Django Unchained is the pick.  It’s won the most precursors, and it most likely would’ve won the WGA (went to Zero Dark Thirty) if Tarantino was part of the WGA.  For that, it’s possible that Django is the favorite, but my gut feeling is that Michael Haneke for Amour is going to sneak this one out.  The main reason is that this is possibly the only spot where the Academy can reward Amour for its great film.  Yes, they are nominated in four other categories where it is a shoe-in for Foreign Film, but rewarding Amour just for the Foreign category is like giving a gift card to Walgreens for their birthday.  They like it much much more.  If Haneke wins here, then Riva could win for actress.  But a lot of things need to happen for that, and with the Weinstein Co. behind Tarantino, I don’t know if the Academy can ignore the monster that has been created.  Mark Boal’s script for Zero Dark Thirty is nothing short of an achievement, and I believe should win Original Screenplay, but I don’t think he will unless there’s a strong apologetic and remorse feeling for how ZDT has been gutted these last two months.  My money is Amour, but that might change in the next few days.

Best Adapted Screenplay

Chris Terrio, Argo
Tony Kushner, Lincoln
David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
David Magee, Life of Pi
Benh Zeitlin and Lucy Alibar, Beasts of the Southern Wild

It is very possible the winner of this category is going to win Best Picture.  There’s a slight chance that if Kushner wins, Argo will still take Best Picture, but I do feel that this category has a strong determining factor with how the Academy will vote for Picture also.  This category also pains me to write about because by far, Lincoln was the best script in this bunch.  There’s no question about it.  Kushner is a Pulitzer-winning screenwright who crafted a marvelous script that kept audiences intrigued and entertained based off a premise that’s about old men talking.  Brilliance indeed.  But the last time Kushner actually won was the BFCA awards where Argo took Director and Picture.  The biggest disappointment surprise was when Argo beat out Kushner for the USC Scripter, which awards both the original and adapted piece of work.  We’re comparing one of the greatest political and biographical books ever written in The Team of Rivals and Kushner’s brilliant script and Argo.  I don’t see how it was even remotely possible to even check Argo’s name without some sort of delusional state, but it’s not my place.  Argo here is the favorite, and it most likely will be Chris Terrio and Argo taking home Adapted Screenplay.  But if somehow Silver Linings or Life of Pi sneak this one out, it will definitely at least take Director and/or Picture.  If Kushner wins, then you will definitely hear Spielberg’s name for Director and potentially see an upset for Picture.

Tomorrow will be the acting categories.

DJANGO Spoof on SNL Entitled “DJESUS UNCROSSED”

There’s no other character to play to heighten your possibility of winning an Oscar than playing Jesus.  And with the growing popularity of Tarantino’s new genre, this makes total sense.  Christoph Waltz plays the title role, and pretty much they’re just shooting up Romans.  Fun indeed.

Initial Reactions To 2013 Oscar Nominations

If someone was to mention that this year was going to be break many precedents, the usual history and connections with guilds and completely ruin some of contenders’ chances at Best Picture, then I would actually not be that surprised.  Just a quick note, I got 63/92 correct…  Yikes.

This year was asking for it, ever since they moved up the nominations ballot a few weeks up. The Academy never got a chance at BAFTA nominations, DGA nominations and other awards including Critics’ Choice and Golden Globes. And with the decreased amount of time, those big holiday films like Django Unchained, Les Miserables and Zero Dark Thirty (though I don’t think is particularly the case for ZDT) didn’t get enough time to relish within the Academy, especially Django.  But nonetheless, let’s talk about the nominations first.

Lincoln leads all films with 12 nominations.  That’s not much of a surprise.  Box office hit, excellent cast and a director that runs Hollywood, it was always the favorite.  It’s a monster of a film, and I’m not sure if there’s a chance that another film can take its current status.  Nominations that include Picture, Director, Actor, Supporting Actor and Actress, Screenplay, Editing and more alludes to the fact that they just couldn’t ignore this film.  No matter what the opinions of the Academy are in regards to Lincoln, it just had too much momentum.

Right behind Lincoln is Life of Pi, which surprisingly received 11 nominations including Picture, Director and Screenplay.  The quality of the film is up there with Lincoln, and it is definitely one of the finest achievements in film to date.  The reason for the surprise is because of recent news of 20th Century Fox pulling all award advertisements for the Ang Lee picture.  So if anything, we obviously now know that the Academy went gaga over Life of Pi.  Without much publicity or Oscar campaigning, the film still was the second most nominated film in 2013.  That says a lot.  Now I firmly believe it’s a Best Picture contender, and it has a strong possibility of upsetting Lincoln during the big night.

Silver Linings Playbook, Beasts of The Southern Wild and Amour were also Academy darlings this year.  You usually can tell how the Oscars personally feel about specific films in terms of how many nominations they give certain films that aren’t favorites/contenders in the big categories.  Considering this, these three films managed to land nominations in major categories including Picture, Director, Acting and Screenplays.  The biggest surprise is the directing category, where David O. Russell, Michael Haneke and Behn Zeitlin (first time feature) all crashed the party, taking almost guaranteed spots from Affleck and Bigelow.  What a shocker that was.  Instead of discussing the Academy’s opinions on Argo and Zero Dark Thirty, I think what’s more important is that these three films played up to exactly what the Academy loves.  Pleasing their tastes is exactly what equates to Oscar recognition, and though I felt that Beasts wasn’t exactly an Oscar cliche, they do love small budget films making it big in Hollywood.

But as I mentioned  before, I think more people are shocked at the ignorance of Affleck and Bigelow, not even including Hooper and Tarantino in director.  As always, the Oscars is all political, and the importance of timing and appeal is quite necessary for success.  Argo, though is a prefect fit for Oscar bait, lost too much of its steam in the long run, releasing too early and having to fall behind other films the Academy felt were stronger.  Though it still received eight nominations, the non-nomination for Affleck could directly contribute to the Academy’s attitude against Affleck more than the film, but whatever the case, it’s a damn shame.

Zero Dark Thirty is a tricky one, mainly being hurt from its political accusations and the potential pro-torture message.  Though it’s one of the most ridiculous labellings of any film I’ve recently witnessed, it was enough to take away from the film.  It only received five nominations, and the biggest one it got snubbed for was obviously Director for Bigelow.  Unfortunately, if the film doesn’t receive a Director’s nom, it’s almost a guarantee that it’s out of the Best Picture race, even with a nomination.  But if there’s any year Oscar can break those general tendencies, this would be the year.  But my overall perception of the Academy’s take on ZDT is that it’s not worth the controversy, and considering that Bigelow and Boal both recently won 3 years ago, it’s almost a lock that it won’t happen.

Other films like Django Unchained and Les Miserables’ nominations aren’t a surprise, though some will be considering Leonardo DiCaprio was not nominated.  Django, though extremely entertaining, doesn’t tune in with the Academy’s notes, and Les Mis was just not as good of a film as everyone expected it to be.  Add in the late December release, it couldn’t have received more than it did.

Honestly, when you follow the Oscars as closely as I have, you learn to disconnect from favoriting films and getting emotionally attached.  This happened numerous times with The Dark Knight and The Social Network.  We all must remember that the Academy can give a rat’s crack about what we, the bloggers, critics, fans, nerds, geeks and the average fan think.  They do as they please, and that’s honestly the best way to vote.  If that’s how they feel about the films of 2012, then that’s how they feel.

At least The Dark Knight Rises got no nominations.  Victory indeed!

Here It Goes: The 2013 Oscar Nominations Predictions!

Tomorrow is the big day: Oscar nominations will be announced early in the morning, and the most prestigious award in Hollywood will lower the field incredibly.  There are so much politics to Oscar nominations, from how much the Academy loved the film, the specific Guild voting, what’s hot/not, etc.  It’s almost a guarantee to look foolish predicting Oscar nominations, but I shall look foolish.  Here are my predictions for the 2013 Academy Awards, well at least just 18 categories.  (Put your input and predictions in the comment section below!):

Best Picture

Zero Dark Thirty
Les Miserables
Django Unchained
Lincoln
Moonrise Kingdom
Amour
Life of Pi
Skyfall
Argo
Silver Linings Playbook

Alternate: Beasts of The Southern Wild
Who Should But Won’t: The Master/The Impossible

Best Actor

Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables
Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
Denzel Washington, Flight
John Hawkes, The Sessions

Alternate: Richard Gere, Arbitrage
Who Should But Won’t: Joaquin Phoenix, The Master

Best Actress

Jennifer Lawerence, Silver Linings Playbook
Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Marion Cotillard, Rust & Bone
Quvenzhane Wallis, Beasts of The Southern Wild
Emannuelle Riva, Amour

Alternate: Naomi Watts, The Impossible
Who Should But Won’t: Naomi Watts, The Impossible (if the Academy loves Amour)

Best Supporting Actor

Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln
Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained
Alan Arkin, Argo
Javier Bardem, Skyfall
Phillip Seymour Hoffman, The Master

Alternate: Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook
Who Should But Won’t: Ezra Miller, Perks of Being A Wallflower & Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained

Best Supporting Actress

Sally Field, Lincoln
Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables
Helen Hunt, The Sessions
Nicole Kidman, The Paperboy
Maggie Smith, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

Alternate: Amy Adams, The Master
Who Should But Won’t: Ann Dowd, Compliance

Best Director

Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty
Ang Lee, Life of Pi
Ben Affleck, Argo
Tom Hooper, Les Miserables

Alternate: David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook, Michael Haneke, Amour
Who Should But Won’t: Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained (I have a feeling…) and Benh Zeitlin, Beasts of The Southern Wild

Best Original Screenplay

Mark Boal, Zero Dark Thirty
Rian Johnson, Looper
Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained
Wes Anderson & Roman Coppola, Moonrise Kingdom
Michael Haneke, Amour

Alternate: John Gatins, Flight
Who Should But Won’t: Paul Thomas Anderson, The Master

Best Adapted Screenplay

Tony Kushner, Lincoln
Chris Terrio, Argo
David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook
David Magee, Life of Pi
Stephen Chbosky, The Perks of Being A Wallflower

Alternate: William Nicholson, Les Miserables
Who Should But Won’t: Benh Zeitlin & Lucy Alibar, Beasts of The Southern Wild

Best Editing

Zero Dark Thirty
Argo
Skyfall
Lincoln
Les Miserables

Alternate: Life of Pi
Who Should But Won’t: Django Unchained

Best Cinematography

Life of Pi
Skyfall
Lincoln
Les Miserables
Zero Dark Thirty

Alternate: Anna Karenina
Who Should But Won’t: The Master, Cloud Atlas, The Dark Knight Rises

Best Art Direction

Lincoln
Django Unchained
Les Miserables
The Hobbit
The Master

Best Sound Mixing

Skyfall
Lincoln
Zero Dark Thirty
Les Miserables
Django Unchained

Best Sound Editing

Skyfall
Argo
Zero Dark Thirty
Lincoln
Les Miserables

 

 

Best Costume Design

Lincoln
Anna Karenina
Les Miserables
Django Unchained
Cloud Atlas

Best Original Score

Beasts of The Southern Wild
Argo
Cloud Atlas
Lincoln
Life of Pi

Best Animated Feature

Frankenweeknie
Brave
Rise of The Guardians
Wreck-It-Ralph
Paranorman

Best Visual Effects

Life of Pi
The Hobbit
Cloud Atlas
The Avengers
The Dark Knight Rises

Best Makeup

Lincoln
Les Miserables
Men In Black 3